The Note, September 24: "In 2000, Bush lost Wisconsin by fewer than 6,000 votes. This year, both sides agree: if there is one 2000 Democratic state that is most likely to be picked off by the President, this is it.

"ABC News' David Chalian attributes Bush's current strength in Wisconsin to an economy that was never as bad as some other Midwestern states, Kerry underperforming among African-Americans, and the Milwaukee suburbs seeming to trend towards Bush on cultural issues."