The Note, September 7th: "This is an exact formula—if more than 31 of the 56 days left until election day are fought in the New York Times and on the network news over Iraq, President Bush will be re-elected."

The Note, September 8th, summarizing Noted statement: "Yesterday, we wrote that if the election dialogue is about Iraq, John Kerry can't win."

The Note, September 20th: "If John Kerry can convince Americans that President Bush will continue to make a mess of Iraq, he can win the election—and nothing else matters."

Amazing the difference two weeks make.