Thursday, March 9, 2006

Google Exuberance

You know a company is still well within the graces of its client base when those users interpret service outages as a sign of better things to come.

By the way, has anyone noticed that the long-term trend of GOOG looks remarkably similar to the long-term trend of YHOO only delayed six years? Do the math to reverse Yahoo!'s splits or look at the numbers from that time, and they're nearly identical to Google's today.

YHOO crested just above $500 on January 4, 2000.
GOOG crested just above $475 on January 11, 2006.

Two splits later and YHOO is trading in 2006 at $30.

Where will GOOG be in 2012?

I like both companies a lot and use the service of each. They both have their place, and I look forward to seeing what each does next. But as history proves, there is often a weak correlation at best between those things and their producers' valuations.

One key difference between now and six years ago, is in 2000, Google had already begun to nip at the heels of Yahoo! No such contender to Google appears to be on the horizon today. Unless you count that other big tech company and their claims.

They crested at almost $120 on December 30, 1999. Today: $27.

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